Arms Race - Mideast

Israel successfully tested a long-range nuclear capable missile on January 17, 2008. This test occurred concurrently with Russian naval exercises and the Russians own missile test. Debka further reports the Russian are in the process of establishing permanent naval bases in Tartous and Latakia, both in Syria. These actions, which also include Russia's third shipment of nuclear material to Iran, constitute an arms race occurring in the Middle East, the likes of which have not been seen since the Cold War.

The contrast to the 1980s is the location of all of these armaments are well within range of established military bases. Israel has already proven it can hit targets in Syria with conventional airpower. The success of the Israeli strike has caused the Russians to put their best salesmanship hat on to impress the Syrians that the NEXT air defense system will be the one to prevent future attacks. Simultaneously, the Iranians are not sitting on their haunches and are providing equipment, technology, and training to the Syrian, Hezbollah, AQ-I, Taliban, Hamas, et al. Also, Iran already has the capability to strike Israel with missiles, now they are working on increasing the lethality of their delivery systems.

Additionally, President Bush notified Congress of his intent to transfer 900 Joint Direct Attack Munitions (JDAM) to Saudi Arabia. Of course, pro-Israeli members of Congress have asked for assurances that the Saudis will not use these weapons to attack Israel, or the United States. Generally, Debka states the Persian Gulf states are looking to diversify their weapons sources beyond American suppliers. Already, the amount of military equipment currently located in the Gulf Region is only slightly less than the number of raindrops during a Florida thunderstorm.

The danger in this arms race, besides the technology itself, is the proximity in which the weapons, bases, and personnel are located. In contrast to the somewhat dispersed American and Russian forces of the Cold War, the Mediterranean andGulf States have all of their military forces in theater. Most are already at medium levels of mobilization to counter real and perceived threats to their sovereignty and security. Unlike the 1980s, the current situation is more akin to the pre-World War I arms race and buildup in Europe.

Historians refer to the Balkans during that time as "The Powderkeg". One century later, we are watching the keg again filling. Will we also witness its lighting?